> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.hazel.ai/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Market assumptions

> The return, volatility, inflation and tax figures every plan is built on: how your firm edits the set, how much detail to model, and how a plan shows which figures it used.

You are going to put a projection in front of a client, so the capital-market figures behind it should be your firm's own.

Market assumptions live in **Settings → Planning → Market assumptions**, a firm owner's screen. Like the rest of Planning settings, there is no Save button: edits save themselves.

## One set, edited in place

Your firm has one set from the moment the screen first opens, already filled in with Hazel's published figures, and every plan is built on it. This screen edits it directly: there is no draft copy and no separate step that switches a new set on.

Along the top of the screen:

* The **name** field labels the set for whoever opens the screen next.
* A line counting how many values you have edited.
* **Reset all to source**, which appears once there is something to reset and returns every row to Hazel's figure.
* **Publish to firm**, unavailable until you have changed a row. Pressing it flashes "Published" and changes nothing else, because the edit saved when you made it. An edited row wears a badge reading "Applies to all new plans when published", and it already applies.

## The four sections

| Section        | What it sets                               | Simple                                                    | By sub-asset class                                                           |
| -------------- | ------------------------------------------ | --------------------------------------------------------- | ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- |
| **Returns**    | Expected returns used to grow assets       | Three rows: Equity, Fixed income, Cash & equivalents      | Nine rows: four equity classes, four fixed-income classes, cash              |
| **Volatility** | Variability market simulations draw on     | The same three rows                                       | The same nine rows                                                           |
| **Inflation**  | General price growth on spending and goals | One row                                                   | One row, so switching changes nothing on screen                              |
| **Taxes**      | Effective rates for tax-aware projections  | One row, **Effective tax rates**, a single blended figure | **Ordinary income**, **Long-term capital gains** and **Qualified dividends** |

Return rows are nominal long-term figures, one compound annual rate per asset class, and volatility rows are annualized standard deviations. Inflation is modeled separately, so enter the nominal returns your committee agreed: a real return here removes inflation twice.

### How much detail to model

Each section carries its own **Simple** or **By sub-asset class** toggle, so the levels can differ. If you went looking for a capital-gains rate and found one blended number, the Taxes toggle is what you were missing.

<Note>
  Hazel's Simple Equity and Fixed income figures are the equal-weight average of that section's four sub-asset-class rows. Past that the levels are independent: each keeps its own rows, and only the rows visible at your selected level reach a plan. An edit at the level you are not showing is remembered, and still counts in the edited-values line, so that count can run ahead of the screen.
</Note>

## Changing a row

Every row is a slider: drag it or nudge it with the arrow keys. The reading beside it is a display, not a field to type in. Returns, volatility and inflation move in tenths of a percent and tax rates in half points, so a figure between two steps cannot be set here, and **Reset to source** is the only way back to the exact published figure. The [Assumptions reference](/guides/financial-planning/assumptions/reference) lists every range.

An edited row says so: its provenance line changes from the source label to **Set by You**, a badge appears, and **Reset to source** sits beside it. The section header gains a **Custom** badge naming what the section is based on.

## The Monte Carlo switch

A switch labeled **Monte Carlo** sits in the header of the Volatility card and covers the whole set, whatever detail level each section is on. On, Hazel models many market paths, which is where a range of outcomes and a probability of success come from. Off, expect plans to lean on single-path figures instead of a spread. Leave it on unless you have a specific reason not to.

## What plans do with these

Select a figure that carries its workings and **Provenance and calculations** names the assumption behind it, its value, and where it came from: Hazel's default set until your firm moves that row, your firm afterwards. A figure with no workings renders as plain text and does not open.

The plan's **Appendix** lists them under **Applied settings**: a **Market scenario** row, then the rows your firm or this plan changed. The scenario row identifies the set rather than repeating the name you typed in settings. See [Where numbers come from](/guides/financial-planning/your-data/where-numbers-come-from).

One plan can differ from the firm set. Open a plan from its chat and the **Plan settings** panel lists the market rows your firm has hand-edited, adjustable for that plan alone and committed with **Apply and replan**. Hand-edit nothing and that panel has no market rows to adjust. **Plan settings** is chat-only: a plan opened on the household's **Financial Planning** tab has no such control, so make the change from that plan's own chat.

<Warning>
  Changing a figure here changes what new plans and rebuilds are built on. A plan version you leave alone keeps the figures it was built with, so nothing you have shown a client moves under you, though an older version can disagree with this screen. To bring a household onto new figures, use **Regenerate** in the top bar of the household's **Financial Planning** tab.
</Warning>

## Reviewing them

Once a year, with your investment committee: mid-year changes are hard to explain to a client, and there is no draft to circulate, so bring agreed numbers. Rename the set for the year you adopted it.

Then rebuild two plans you know, one near retirement and one accumulator, with **Regenerate** on each household's **Financial Planning** tab, and back out surprises with **Reset to source** or **Reset all to source**.

## Where to go next

* [Solver assumptions](/guides/financial-planning/assumptions/solver-assumptions): the planning inputs the math runs on.
* [Assumptions reference](/guides/financial-planning/assumptions/reference): every shipped figure and range.
* [Where numbers come from](/guides/financial-planning/your-data/where-numbers-come-from): how a plan attributes a figure.
* [Editing a plan directly](/guides/financial-planning/the-plan/editing-a-plan-directly): changing one figure and recalculating.